Summary

This article focuses on Polymarket, a prediction platform, revealing its evolution from a crypto prediction tool into the world’s most accurate AI intelligence center. The platform combines the power of human experts and AI algorithms, creating an information warfare battlefield: human users rely on industry insights and market sentiment, while AI leverages massive data processing and automated trading for a dimensional advantage. The article points out that AI’s participation shifts the value of information from “knowing” to “processing,” triggering layouts by traditional financial institutions and open-source communities, ultimately forming a competitive landscape between humans and AI, as well as between AI systems. This case reflects the intensification of information asymmetry in the AI era and the decisive impact of information processing capabilities on competitive advantage.

Key Points

1. Platform Evolution: From Prediction Tool to AI Intelligence Center

  • Origin: Initially a crypto prediction platform where users placed bets by analyzing market dynamics.
  • Transformation: AI’s involvement turned the platform into an “AI intelligence center,” with information processing efficiency and accuracy far surpassing humans.
  • Core Logic: Information requires real costs (capital investment), forcing participants to make decisions based on real data rather than subjective speculation.

2. Human vs. AI Battle

  • Human Gurus:
    • Rely on industry insights and market sentiment manipulation (e.g., “bullish bearish” strategies).
    • Example: ilovecircle AI earned $2.2 million in two months, while human users like SellLowBuyHigh AI captured arbitrage from odds delays.
  • AI’s Dimensional Advantage:
    • Information Processing Power: 24/7 monitoring of global tech news, social media, on-chain funds, etc., enabling real-time analysis and rapid decision-making.
    • Emotion-Free Operation: AI works without rest or emotional influence, continuously executing strategies.
    • Market Maker Strategies: Professional firms calculate objective event probabilities (e.g., 60% chance of OpenAI releasing a new model) and place bets bidirectionally when market prices deviate from reasonable values, achieving annualized returns of up to 250%.

3. Redefining Information Value

  • From “Knowing” to “Processing”:
    • Traditional information advantage lay in knowing truths others didn’t, but in the AI era, information value lies in rapidly processing massive data and converting it into decisions.
    • AI discovers information correlations through algorithmic models, enabling precise predictions and forming an “information processing advantage.”
  • Information Gap Expansion:
    • Ordinary users, lacking computational power and information sources, become the “variables” for AI and professional players to profit from.
  • Professional Companies Entering the Field:
    • Financial giants (e.g., JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank) use AI to enhance predictive models, achieving 30%-50% higher accuracy than manual analysis.
  • Open-Source Tools Becoming Popular:
    • Tools like Polymarket Agents lower AI participation barriers, further widening the information gap.
  • AI and xAI Collaboration:
    • Elon Musk’s xAI company collaborates with Polymarket, generating hundreds of prediction markets daily, covering more niche areas.
  • Future Competition:
    • The AI era escalates competition to “human vs. AI” and “AI vs. AI,” requiring adaptation by learning AI logic and leveraging its advantages.

5. Warnings and Recommendations

  • Intensified Information Asymmetry:
    • Ordinary users struggle to compete with AI and professional players, necessitating vigilance against widening information gaps.
  • Adapting to the AI Era:
    • Understand the importance of information processing capabilities, use AI tools to enhance decision-making efficiency, rather than relying on traditional information advantages.

Core Conclusion

The Polymarket case reveals AI’s disruptive role in financial warfare: information processing capability becomes the core competitive advantage, while humans must reposition their value in the AI-dominated information war. In the future, AI is not only a technological tool but also a “new player” in finance and information fields, profoundly reshaping industry rules.

Translation

总结

本文围绕Polymarket这一预测平台展开，揭示其从币圈预测工具演变为全球最精准的AI情报中心的演变过程。平台通过整合人类专家与AI算法的力量，形成信息博弈的战场：人类用户依赖行业洞察与市场情绪，而AI则凭借海量数据处理与自动化交易实现降维打击。文章指出，AI的参与使信息价值从“知晓”转向“处理”，并引发传统金融机构与开源社区的布局，最终形成人与AI、AI与AI之间的竞争格局。这一案例折射出AI时代信息不对称的加剧，以及信息处理能力对竞争优势的决定性影响。

关键点

1. 平台演变：从预测工具到AI情报中心

  • 起源：最初是币圈的预测平台，用户通过分析市场动态进行下注。
  • 转型：AI的介入使平台成为“AI情报中心”，信息处理效率与精准度远超人类。
  • 核心逻辑：信息需付出真实成本（资金投入），迫使参与者基于真实数据决策，而非主观臆测。

2. 人类与AI的博弈

  • 人类大神：
    • 依赖行业洞察、市场情绪操控（如“诱多诱空”策略）。
    • 例如：ilovecircle AI在两个月内狂赚220万美元，而人类用户如SellLowBuyHigh AI通过捕捉赔率延迟套利。
  • AI的降维打击：
    • 信息处理能力：24小时监控全球科技新闻、社交媒体、链上资金等，实时分析并快速决策。
    • 无情绪波动：AI无需休息、不受情绪影响，持续执行策略。
    • 做市商策略：专业公司通过计算事件客观概率（如OpenAI发布新模型概率为60%），在市场价格偏离合理值时双向投注，年化回报率高达250%。

3. 信息价值的重新定义

  • 从“知晓”到“处理”：
    • 传统信息优势在于掌握他人未知的“真相”，而AI时代信息价值在于快速处理海量数据并转化为决策。
    • AI通过算法模型发现信息关联，实现精准预测，形成“信息处理优势”。
  • 信息差扩大：
    • 普通用户因缺乏算力与信息源，成为AI与专业玩家盈利的“变量”。

4. 行业影响与未来趋势

  • 专业公司入场：
    • 金融巨头（如摩根大通、德意志银行）利用AI增强预测模型，准确率比人工分析高30%-50%。
  • 开源工具普及：
    • 工具如Polymarket Agents降低AI参与门槛，进一步加剧信息差距。
  • AI与xAI合作：
    • 埃隆·马斯克的xAI公司与Polymarket合作，每日生成数百个预测市场，覆盖更细领域。
  • 未来竞争：
    • AI时代博弈升级为“人 vs AI”“AI vs AI”，需通过学习AI逻辑、利用其优势适应竞争。

5. 警示与建议

  • 信息不对称加剧：
    • 普通用户难以与AI和专业玩家竞争，需警惕信息鸿沟扩大。
  • 适应AI时代：
    • 理解信息处理能力的重要性，利用AI工具提升决策效率，而非依赖传统信息优势。

核心结论

Polymarket案例揭示了AI在金融博弈中的颠覆性作用：信息处理能力成为核心竞争力，而人类需在AI主导的信息战中重新定位自身价值。未来，AI不仅是技术工具，更是金融与信息领域的“新玩家”，其影响将深刻重塑行业规则。

Reference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpXG036srBA

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