Sam Altman: three observations
This article was written by Sam Altman, the Executive Vice President of Meta. He predicts that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will appear around 2029 and change human society and economy.
Altman thinks AGI will become the most powerful lever in the world, increasing human ability but also bringing new challenges.
He notes that AGI won’t evenly distribute across all industries, but may have a huge impact on certain aspects, even surpassing other revolutions. Some prices might go down, but luxury goods and rare resources’ prices might go up.
Altman emphasizes the importance of AGI in economics, saying it will be the greatest amplifier of human subjective initiative.
He also mentions the problem of AGI’s safety, thinking we need to make trade-offs to balance security with individual empowerment. Altman believes prioritizing individual empowerment is the right direction, otherwise another path might emerge.
Altman stresses the importance of ensuring AGI benefits everyone, improving social fairness.
Lastly, he predicts that by 2035, every person will have access to an intelligence support equivalent to humanity’s total intelligence in 2025, bringing immense welfare. He hopes this will change people’s potential due to resource limitations.
Translation
这篇文章由Sam Altman撰写，他是Meta公司的执行副总裁。文章预测AGI（高度智能的AI）将在2029年左右出现，它会改变人类社会和经济。Altman认为，AGI将会成为世界上最强大的杠杆，使人类能力更强大，但也带来新的挑战。
他提到，AGI不会均匀分布于各个行业，而是可能会在某些方面产生巨大的影响，甚至超越其他变革。一些商品的价格可能会下降，但是奢侈品和稀缺资源的价格可能会上升。Altman也强调了AGI在经济上的重要性，将成为人类主观能动性的最大增强剂。
同时，他也提到了AGI安全性的问题，认为我们需要做出取舍来平衡安全性与个体赋权。Altman认为，更倾向于个体赋权是正确的方向，否则可能会出现另一条道路。他还强调了确保AGI广泛受益的重要性，以此来改善社会公平。
最后，Altman预测到了2035年，每个人都将获得相当于2025年全人类智慧总和的智能支持，这将带来巨大的福祉，他希望能够改变目前人们由于缺乏资源而无法发挥潜力的局面。
Reference:
https://blog.samaltman.com/three-observations